Summary:Copper price hits new record in the US amid rising copper supply risk and US tariff expectations. LME and COMEX copper rally sharply, while sulfur shortage and falling refined copper output further tighten the global copper market....
Copper Price Hits Record in US on Supply Risks and Tariff Expectations
Global Copper Market Rally Driven by Sulfur Shortage, Mine Disruption and US Tariff Policy
Copper extended its strong rally on Wednesday, pushing prices to a new record high in the US market. Mounting supply risks have greatly improved the market outlook, while easing concerns over demand impact from the Iran conflict, supporting the continuous rise of copper price across global exchanges.
COMEX copper futures surged 2.4% to a historic high of $6.69 per pound. The price premium over LME copper continued to widen, as market participants widely expect the United States to impose new tariffs on refined metal imports. Policy anticipation has become an important factor driving the divergence between US and London copper markets.
In contrast, LME copper price rose 1.6% to nearly $14,200 per ton, only $300 away from the all-time peak of $14,500 set in January. After a sharp decline through most of March, the red metal staged a powerful rebound. Existing mine disruptions already drove copper price up by 40% in 2025, and fresh supply concerns have further strengthened the upward trend in 2026.
The most prominent supply threat comes from the Gulf region, which has cut off a large proportion of global sulfur supply. Sulfur is an essential raw material for conventional copper mining and smelting activities. Industry analysts estimate that around one-fifth of global copper mine production relies heavily on sulfuric acid supply. If the Strait of Hormuz faces shipping closure, it will directly affect up to 4.8 million tonnes of copper output, bringing huge uncertainty to the global copper supply risk.
Downstream industrial chains are also under obvious pressure. Worsening raw material shortages at global mines have begun to constrain refined metal production. As the world’s largest copper consumer, China recorded a 3% drop in refined copper output in April, and relevant institutions predict production will decline further in May. Weak refined copper output has tightened spot supply and provided solid support for medium and long-term copper prices.
Li Xuezhi, head of research at Chaos Ternary Futures, pointed out in a Wednesday note to Bloomberg that the overall recovery of industrial metals is mainly driven by two factors: the continuous accumulation of global supply problems and resilient downstream demand. At the same time, diminishing worries about the Iran conflict have removed macro pressure on the copper market, allowing fundamental supply and demand to dominate price trends again.
US tariff policy is another key catalyst for the current market. The possibility of broader tariffs on copper imports once pushed New York copper to record highs last summer. Now investors are closely waiting for the US Commerce Secretary’s updated report on the domestic copper market, which is scheduled to be released by June 30. Ahead of the official tariff decision, cross-market arbitrage opportunities have reopened for traders, directly lifting US copper inventories and accelerating the market’s bullish sentiment.
Since the start of this year, copper price has climbed more than 10%, standing out among industrial metals. Under the combined influence of mine disruption, sulfur shortage, falling refined copper output and US tariff expectations, the global copper market will maintain a tight pattern in the short term, and price volatility will remain at a high level, worthy of continuous attention from mining enterprises, traders and industrial downstream buyers.
